natasha's corner

Scott Adams, of Dilbert fame, writes:

This summer I found myself wishing someone would give voters useful and unbiased information about which candidate has the best plans for the economy.

Then I realized that I am someone, which is both inconvenient and expensive. So for once I asked not what my country could do for me.

Today he finally released the results of his survey of 500 economists regarding which presidential candidate would be better overall for the economy. You can read his commentary on CNN here: Dilbert guy’s economic poll on McCain, Obama (or see the detailed survey data or read his blog post).

I’ve been looking forward to these results for some time now. I’m a little surprised at the factors that the economists were polled on, though. When I think “economy,” I think “money.” And when I think “What are economists qualified to give advice on?” the answer is “economic issues.” The survey, however, looked at issues like education, environmental policy, energy, and health care. I guess these all have an impact on the economy, but my understanding of the term was always more along the lines of how Wikipedia defines it:

An economy is the realized social system of production, exchange, distribution, and consumption of goods and services of a country or other area.

So, based on that definition, let’s look at the questions that were asked by Adams’ survey where an economists’ opinion would be most valuable.

International trade

• Obama: 26%
• McCain: 51%
• No Difference: 23%

Mortgage/housing crisis

• Obama: 41%
• McCain: 18%
• No Difference: 41%

Reducing the deficit

• Obama: 37%
• McCain: 29%
• No Difference: 33%

Increasing taxes on wealthy

• Obama: 79%
• McCain: 14%
• No Difference: 7%

Overall, on average, that’s:

• Obama: 46%
• McCain: 28%
• No Difference: 26%

However, it’s questionable whether increasing taxes on the wealthy is a positive thing, so taking that out, we get:

• Obama: 35%
• McCain: 33%
• No Difference: 32%

Unfortunately, that seems too close to call. I guess I was hoping to have a more definitive answer regarding the economy from economists. This is pretty disappointing.